La Niña is expected to affect the United States this winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports. This season, there is a 74% chance of La Niña, which is the result of cooling ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. According to the National Weather Service, La Niña can occur for variable lengths of time and usually occurs every three to five years. In comparison, the ocean temperatures rose during the El Niño circumstances of the previous year.
La Niña’s development may have an impact on national weather patterns. Changes in jet stream activity, rainfall patterns, and storm trajectories may occur when El Niño turns into La Niña. “This period usually happens every 3 to 5 years, but can also pop up on occasion,” the National Weather Service states.
NOAA’s New York Fall Forecast
The NOAA’s fall forecast for New York indicates that above-average temperatures are likely. From October through December, the National Weather Service predicts a 40% to 50% likelihood of warmer-than-usual temperatures throughout the state.
While the New York City metro area and Long Island are predicted to see “equal chances” of normal rainfall—that is, no discernible trend indicating wetter or drier conditions in these regions—Upstate New York has a 33% to 40% chance of experiencing more precipitation than normal during the same period.
Warmer Temperatures but Uncertainty About Snowfall in the Winter Forecast
According to NOAA’s forecast, there is a 40% to 50% possibility of above-average temperatures in New York from December through February. This tendency affects a sizable portion of the state, including the Hudson Valley and the Adirondacks in the west, center, and east.
According to the National Weather Service, there is a 40% to 50% probability of above-average rainfall or snowfall across central and western New York, which might result in higher precipitation amounts. On the other hand, typical precipitation levels are once again predicted for Long Island and the New York City metro area, with “equal chances” for wetter or drier weather.
But it’s unclear from the prediction whether this extra precipitation will come in the form of ice, rain, or snow. Snowstorms are dependent on the specific winter storm’s severity and track, which is unpredictable more than a week in advance, according to meteorologists. Thus, the amount of snow that New York might receive this winter is yet unknown.
Forecast by Farmer’s Almanac for the Winter of 2024-2025
The Farmer’s Almanac offers a more comprehensive forecast for the winter than does NOAA, which gives more detailed predictions. According to the journal, there will be few days between weather events this season as there will be “rapid-fire storms” that deliver both rain and snow.
The Almanac’s forecast for the Northeast, which includes New York, predicts that the state will experience above-average winter precipitation. The Great Lakes region is predicted to see the lowest temperatures, but New York will also get a lot of rain and snow, especially in the interior and hilly regions.
Upstate areas will likely see more snowfall, while coastal places around the Interstate 95 corridor, including sections of New York City, are more likely to see rain and sleet.
The Impact of La Niña on the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2024
Despite early forecasts indicating its return by late summer, La Niña has not fully materialized as of October, even though it is heavily forecast for this winter. Because La Niña conditions reduce vertical wind shear, which may tear apart forming storms, they tend to encourage hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Consequently, La Niña frequently causes hurricanes and tropical storms to intensify.
Forecaster Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center clarified that areas vulnerable to hurricanes had benefited from La Niña’s delayed arrival. He said, “It doesn’t look like we’re going to have a really intense November at this point.” This change offers some respite to the hurricane-prone Gulf Coast and other areas, especially following a busy September and early October with lots of tropical activity.
Forecasters say that even while La Niña still has a 60% probability of returning by the end of November, it will most likely be “weak” and short-lived. It seems unlikely that the 2024 hurricane season would produce the 17–25 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4-5 significant hurricanes that NOAA first anticipated in May without a severe La Niña.
Rosencrans states, “We’re probably going to finish up at the lower end of our projections… We will undoubtedly stop moving at this frantic speed.” Although there might be three more named storms this season, he continued, it won’t be as active as first anticipated.
Difficulties in Forecasting ENSO and La Niña Cycles
For meteorologists, predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is still a challenging undertaking. El Niño and La Niña, the warmer and colder stages of the ENSO cycle, alternate, although it is challenging to predict these changes months in advance due to a multitude of reasons, including short-term weather anomalies and long-term climatic patterns. Rosencrans stressed that it can be difficult to make accurate early La Niña forecasts, especially before the hurricane season: “One of the big research challenges is how do we fix that spring barrier.”
Notwithstanding these obstacles, NOAA persists in tracking the possible impacts of La Niña on meteorological trends in New York and throughout the United States. Later in the season, if La Niña does return, it might affect not only the rest of the hurricane season but also the national winter weather.